I am not an economist. In fact I share most people’s disdain for and suspicion of economists since on any given day you can get two equally qualified “experts” to argue diametrically opposed economic concepts in the face of any crisis, real or imagined.

I’ve said it before on this blog and it remains true now. I tend to look for simplicity in all things. I think we tend to over-complicate many things, and even those things that we think are highly complex frequently have very simple responses to major stimuli.

Here is my fear. The entire world’s economy is on the verge of major contraction, if not outright collapse. The problems in Europe are sobering, but similar problems exist in the USA. Asian economies have been contracting rapidly for the past six months already.

Politicians in Washington are all too willing to play political games with our economic futures. And that goes for both Republicans and Democrats. Democrats accuse Republicans of stonewalling and Republicans accuse Democrats of purposefully engineering fiscal crises to further socialist goals. Of course I’ve had my own comments on those things.

But putting politics aside, let’s look at the last 18 months as honestly and forthrightly as we can. As much as I have derided Obama’s fruitless stimulus, the fact is that hundreds of billions of dollars were injected artificially into the economy. Hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures were averted by federal fiat. Entire industries were absorbed by the government to avoid their looming bankruptcy. Over a trillion paper dollars in excess of normal supply have been printed and distributed.

Regardless of my personal disagreement with pretty much all of those policies, the raw fact remains that in spite of (and I’m not going to say “because of” since I’m trying not to be political here) the most massive government attempt to “bail out” or “shore up” the world’s and the US economy, the major economic indicators are not showing any improvement. Jobs are not coming back. Homes are continuing to go deeper underwater, leading to more abandonment of loans. Credit markets are still not liquid. Governments are still spending like drunken sailors.

I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet, and I’m afraid the bottom of this is still possibly going to be very, very deep. The next wave of government intervention is likely to be even more draconian than the last. I would not be surprised to see the Fed printing money hand over fist to stop a potential deflationary spiral.

I remain very, very worried about the future.