So I’ve been thinking about life in general lately. I’m about to go on vacation and the first thing we will do when we land in Kentucky is head to a funeral. Those things always tend to focus your mind on your own life, for at least a few minutes. Also I had the experience of learning a valuable life lesson from my own daughter, which is nice to see that she’s grown up level-headed enough to give me a wake-up call even. Yesterday the Cosmic Wife, Cosmic son and I drove to a large mountain reservoir that I’ve been wanting to investigate for a while, and it was an absolutely idyllic mountain lake, with very little conjestion. Although the lake has a very large and accomodating boat ramp, there were only two motor boats that I saw on the lake the whole time we were there. There were maybe half a dozen canoes and kayaks, but for the most part the lake was pristine and the water was clear and blue. The lake was dominated by the towering image of Pikes Peak just to the south. It made me once again decide that I just had to buy a boat. It’s been too long since I’ve been out on the middle of a reservoir with a fishing rod, some soft drinks and some good old 70s rock and roll to listen to.
The whole “moving to Atlanta” thing has cooled down, my boss hasn’t mentioned it in weeks. So it looks for now like we won’t be moving for at least a year, and when we do, it will probably be just to move down into the city. I do love Colorado and would hate to have to leave it.
I’ve been trying to observe national and international events with a more detached and objective eye lately. I tend to get too obsessed in such things when I pay too close attention to them. I’m pretty much convinced that most of my caterwauling about this or that minor political upheaval is all just playiing harmonica on the Titanic anyway. This world is going to change drastically in the next few decades, and much of what I fret about will become more or less pointless if things go the way I think they will.
I was talking with the Cosmic Son about some of this on the drive to the lake. He was asking what the world would be like when people didn’t have or need jobs anymore. He couldn’t wrap his mind around an economy where people didn’t spend the majority of their lives working. If technology continues to move in the direction it is moving, at the pace it is moving, I think it is likely that he will see a world where the majority of people in “developed” countries don’t have “real” jobs. What jobs will people do when construction is done virtually entirely by machine? When trucks drive themselves? When the production of most necessary goods and services are automated and are done more efficiently and safely by machine than humans ever did? What will the humans do?
I told him that some people thought humans would turn into lazy, shiftless lumps who do nothing but interact virtually and lose interest in the rest of the universe. And I told him that some people viewed such a world as the final freeing of humans from enslavement to mind-numbing labor so that each and every human can pursue their natural interests unfettered by worry about material things.
Of course I think the real answer is a little of both. In some cases people will tune out and lose contact with reality, but others would pursue their interests with vigor and continue to expand the sum of human knowledge and experience. There will likely be social upheaval as the economic model of human-based labor finally crumbles, but a new economic model based on human intellectual and artistic pursuits would likely rise from the ashes.
Whatever the result, one thing I know with certainty is that most of the political and cultural conflicts of today will seem downright quaint.
Will it be a better world? A worse world? I don’t know. A little of both, I suspect.
But I do know that I probably wouldn’t want to live in it. We all tend to be products of our times, and I sort of like the world as it is today, with all its warts and problems. I like being able to jump in my car and drive 40 miles to an idyllic mountain lake where I can sit in the sun and watch the kayaks go by and feel the wind blowing in what’s left of my hair. I like the challenges that my career has afforded me, and the fact that by and large I have been successful in meeting those challenges. I like that I had to make my own way in the world and did not rely on the charity of strangers to survive.
I can’t help but think that we are witnessing the approach of a transformative cultural shift that will be comparable to the taming of fire, or the invention of the wheel, or the domestication of horses… I wonder just how much of that I will be fortunate enough to actually see.
Mortality is still with us. But for how much longer?
9 users commented in " Ruminations…. "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackThe trouble with a world built on technology that makes itself is that eventually it will fail. With that failure, society will be destroyed. No one will have the knowledge of how to fix things anymore, as those pursuits were handled by technology.
It will also lead to human life becoming worthless.
Goat: Have you read Isaac Asimov’s stories exploring the concept of technology of this type? He has a short story about a man who re-invents mathematics for fun in a world where everyone has a portable computer that does all that sort of thing for them. It’s quite an interesting story.
Of course your comment would apply equally well to today’s technology. There are dang few people alive today who could make a stone axe, arrow or spearhead if they had to, so if our technology failed today, the great majority of humans would be totally lost. But human life isn’t worthless today, even though we are pretty much totally dependent on the technology we have.
(I do have to point out that I do, in fact, know how to make stone arrows, axes and knives, but just as one of my many meaningless hobbies.)
As usual, I can see both sides of this debate. Human life is only worthless when human beings have lost all sense of purpose and fulfillment. I’m quite certain that I could find purpose and fulfillment in a world where human beings didn’t have to install sheetrock or deliver frozen goods in a truck to grocery stores around the world.
I hope such a world doesn’t end up with human life being worthless because I can’t help but see that such a world is pretty much inevitable. However, as I have long said, the future of this world, and the future of “human” civilization will be determined by artificial intelligences and augmented human beings, not by what we think of as “human” today. In 500 years a “human being” could well be living in the body of a dolphin and swimming around in the ocean because that’s how that individual human wants to experience life, but they would be connected to the worldwide (solar-system wide?) information net and would be able to do anything any other human being could do.
It’s a strange future that awaits us. But I don’t think humans or their progeny will lose their purpose any time soon.
Cosmic, you wrote, “It’s a strange future that awaits us.”
Indeed.
I take my vitamins everyday hoping to extend my life and one day be a dolphin…or arctic muskox….
Cosmic, while there are quite a lot of people who have no skills for survival, there are still plenty now who have the skills to keep things going in the event of current technology failing. There are still the people around who are making the current technology.
The future will include computers or some such type of smart, self replicating type of artificial intelligence, will be the ones with that technology, not the humans. The knowledge on how to make them will die out except in databases, and if they fail along with the other technology, they will end up starting things from scratch. The technology would have left mankind behind and made them superfluous.
What is left is man left to his/her own devices, which means pursuit of power or pleasure.
Take for an example what occurred when Genghis Khan did his campaign against his corner of the world. There had been wars between tribes, but China was at peace for a long time. They didn’t know how to fight and believed that the technology of their day would protect them. (Forts/ stone walls) The Chinese military were out of shape and unable to respond to the might that Genghis brought their way, as an organized force.
Also, because of how medicine will advance, the human race will probably be quite a different species from what we have today. Genetic engineering will alter the human race. With resources also being more finite, it will mean limitations to reproduction as life times expand, it might even mean leading to humans being part machine which would need less food, all by necessity.
I haven’t read that book you mentioned. I do study quite a lot of history, and while the stories change, the motivations and drives haven’t… at least till the US was born. And we are moving right along in the direction of what history has shown us to keep doing.
I don’t think that economic interaction will go away entirely. People will still be limited in their time, and who their attention is directed towards. Even with unlimited lifespans, time has to be prioritized, and so having human attention will cost something (attention in return), outside of natural relationships.
Furthermore, if the machines make themselves, who programs them, invents them, ect? If they program themselves who owns them, and why are they serving you? (What self sustaining motive set attracts to pouring resources one way?)
About the finity of resources – if you have an abundant source of energy, all other resource concerns are problems in industrial engineering. If we get really really good at that (your automation utopia), we won’t run out of resources until we’ve inverted the crust and piled mile high skyscrapers on every available patch of land, supporting several hundred trillion people via artificial means.
I think we have good candidates for nuclear energy technology (Thorium/U-233 breeder reactors) that could give us industrial energy for a loong time.
As far as part machine people needing less resources – your computer is scrap in around 5 years, your body repairs itself off of amino acid sludge until your genes tell it not to anymore. While AIs may have some things going for them, material efficiency when taking into account repair/replacement/lifespan isn’t one of them. And cyborgs have even more problems at interfaces.
PS – for the record, I’m interested in a lot of this stuff. But I’m also somewhat skeptical. We will face a lot of difficulties in creating this technology, and it will ultimately be something that we create.
I suppose that is my primary beef with the singularity folks, not necessarily the importance of anything that they advocate, but their attitude that it is an inevitable consequence of time progressing, rather than something contingent on, and a result of human (\human descended when we get to that point) effort. If civilization collapses, it won’t happen. If we go hard socialist and unite in a one-world tyranny, it won’t happen.
And I think their timescale is off. Maybe my grandchildren will live to see something like the end of mortality. At present, medicine is way too conservative to advance that quickly.
But, as an engineer, I hold out hope that I can have a hand in developing radical technology.
ASEI, I understand, but I think that all of human history is one long lesson of the average person greatly underestimating the advance of technology, and I see a lot of that going on even today as technology remains on its exponential growth curve. One thing I’ve learned about the universe in my life is that virtually everything in the universe is some sort of threshold effect. Things stay more or less the same over a wide range of conditions until a threshold is reached, at which time everything dramatically and usually permanently changes state. That goes for physical matter, energy fields, living beings and human culture.
To me the Singularity is simply the next threshold event in the development of human consciousness. Just as it would have been impossible for a caveman to realize what the taming of fire would lead to, it is just as impossible for us to realize what the taming of nanotechnology, artificial intelligence or genetic engineering will lead to, especially when those three things are synergizing and amplifying their effects on us.
When it does happen, I think it will happen much more quickly than most people can imagine. Think about what has happened in just the last century and magnify that by a couple orders of magnitude. That’s what the Singularity will be. It will be a species transformative event.
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