It’s interesting here in Denver. The radio talk shows (local talent, that is) are all over the Rockies “big weekend.” They keep talking about how this Sunday the Rockies game is going to pull more viewers than the Broncos game against Indianapolis “for the first time ever.”

They don’t seem to understand that the only way Sunday’s game will mean anything is if the Rockies win tonight’s and tomorrow’s games. One loss and it’s pretty much all over, barring the complete collapse of the Mets, Phillies AND Padres.

When I started this whole line of posting back about eight games ago, I said the Rockies pretty much had to win out the season AND get help to make the playoffs, a situation I found to be laughably optimistic considering that meant the Rockies would have to put together a season-ending 14 game win streak. The Rockies had not won more than FIVE games in a row for the entire 2005, 2006 and the first part of the 2007 season, so the idea that a team whose idea of a “winning streak” was to win three games suddenly going on a 14 game bender just seemed absurd to me.

But I also tried to point out that EVEN IF THEY PULLED THAT MIRACLE OFF, they would still need a major collapse by at least two teams, probably three. Well, we had the major collapses by San Diego which lost four of five games and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lost something like eight of eleven, during the Rockies streak, and the Rockies ARE STILL BEHIND THE PADRES. And they are merely tied with the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies, in particular, have hung tough during the final weeks.

The fact that the Rockies are still unlikely to make the playoffs after an eleven game win streak coupled with two teams collapsing down the stretch just proves how ridiculously crazy the idea was that the Rockies had any chance to make the playoffs.

Here’s the deal. The Rockies have three games against the Diamondbacks. The first game is against Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The Rockies do have Jeff Francis on the mound tonight, so they have their best pitcher against the D-Backs best pitcher, but I think that match up favors the D-Backs. IF THEY WIN TONIGHT they MIGHT have a shot at the playoffs. MIGHT. But if they lose tonight, they will be three games behind Arizona with two to play, so they will be out of the race for the division title. If they lose and San Diego wins, they will be two games behind San Diego with two to go, so a loss tonight coupled with a San Diego win means they Rockies HAVE to win the final two games and the Padres HAVE to lose the final two games for the Rockies to tie them and get into the playoffs.

Even if San Diego loses tonight, if the Rockies also lose and Philadelphia wins, then the Rockies will be one behind TWO teams with two games to play, which seems equally unlikely that the Rockies will be able to end up in the playoffs.

So when I said, eight games ago, that the Rockies only chance was for them to pretty much win out the season, and have a lot of help, I feel pretty vindicated by the current situation. If the Rockies lose one more game this weekend, they cannot win their division and they need two or three other teams to lose two games out of three to have a shot at a PLAYOFF to make the playoffs.

So I still think the odds are roughly 50 – 1 against the Rockies making the playoffs. But that’s a lot better than the million to one shot I would have given them eight days ago.

Now, if the Rockies win tonight, and the Padres lose? Then things get very interesting. We could have a four-way tie for the wild card spot between the Mets, Rockies, Padres and Phillies. Odds are at least one of those other teams will win their final two games, so the Rockies will also have to win their final two to keep up with them and get into a playoff to win the wild card.

It’s really amazing when you think about it. A 14 game win streak would pretty much give the Rockies even odds to win a wild card slot, and probably a 2 -1 shot to win their division.

It’s been an amazing run, but the odds are still way, way against the Rockies.

And if they want anyone tuning in their game on Sunday, they better win tonight. Against one of the best pitchers in the game, and against the team that is leading their own division.

But, I have to say it’s been a lot of fun watching the Rockies claw their way into a situation where this game means anything at all. At least for one more day, we can “believe” the impossible.

Go Rockies!!!

How can you call yourself a fan and say such a thing? The mighty Diamondback juggernaut is obviously going to crush the lowly, but overachieving, Rockies, starting tonight. If the Rockies had any sense at all they’d just forfeit tonight’s game so that the Diamondbacks do not get the chance to humiliate them by pounding them into submission. Since I doubt they will be wise enough to forfeit, I’m predicting a major blowout by the Diamondbacks, a final score of 21 – 0 and it only being that low because the Diamondbacks will replace their starters with their September callups in the fifth inning.

And that’s just what those worthless, over-achieving, self-congratulatory Rockies deserve. The last thing I want is for them to start putting on airs and getting my expectations up for NEXT year. Nope it’s better to just take our medicine now, admit our failings and go home with our tail between our legs.

Diamondbacks RULE!!

Off the subject…Thank God The Saints will not be embarrassed this weekend for a change…it is their off week.

CC: I think you did a heckuva job dissing the Rockies. I am in awe.