OK, so it is hard to disagree with the fact that this last two weeks has been very, very bad for Barack Obama. He has done everything but install a shrine to Karl Marx in the Oval Office, his VP has demonstrated the mental faculties of a turnip, his Secretary of State has told him to go suck eggs when asked to take a “promotion” to VP, his Attorney General is literally being sued by the Congress for failure to comply with a Contempt of Congress citation, his Treasury Secretary has admitted that the economy is going nowhere, and in fact may be in for worse before it gets better and his wife has publicly scolded an Olympic athlete on her dietary choices….
What a disaster of a week right?
So why do the polls show him in a better position now than two weeks ago?
Oh, I know there are some specific battleground polls that show Romney has gained a point or two in a few battleground states, but Obama still holds a commanding electoral college lead if the election were held today and the states voted the way they are polling, but nationwide Obama has improved his image in these two weeks. Two weeks that would have utterly destroyed an incumbent Republican.
The fact that this nation has not already told Obama to take a permanent hike is a devastating indictment of the fundamental intelligence of our citizens.
As a famous comedian says. “You can’t fix stupid.”
Stupid favors Democrats. And stupid is a growth industry in our nation today.
5 users commented in " Polls, polls, polls… "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackI believe the polls were pretty tight in 1980 and we all know what happened. I agree with you though, these polls are a mystery.
Almost every poll is skewed toward the left. C’mon…you know that!
The sampling almost always weighs toward Dimocraps.
Heck, this morning Gallup had Romney up 47/45 over Obozo. And, according to what they published that was just among “registered voters.”
As much as I would like to be pessimistic, I can’t. “Registered voters” means nothing after 2008. “Regular Voters” is the group I’d like to see polled (not even “likely voters”).
Millions of first-timers went out and registered so that they could be a part of history. I saw it at my urban polling place…Central Park Elementary School. The lines were out the door with what were obviously “first-timers.”
Haven’t seen one of those faces since, and I’m pretty sure I won’t see them in November. McCain carried Louisiana handily against Obozo (even with the long lines of first-timers lined up for Obozo).
I suspect that come November, the lines will be as they usually are for a Presidential election…not just in Louisiana, but nationwide.
I’m predicting a landslide for Romney.
Very few of the polls that are being conducted, when you look at the internal numbers, are being honest about the weighting given to Democrats. Most of them are over sampling the Democrats by 10 to 15%.
When viewed by that much of an advantage, I don’t think Obama is doing well at all.
Just about every fund raising email he sends out has this desperation tone to it.
Most of the polling is biased due to their being paid by the MSM, and we all know where their stupid hearts lie.
Too much economic bad news will put an end to Obama, at least electorially, though I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts out an Executive Order making him King of the US, or some other backhanded thing to keep himself and Michelle in power.
I suppose the polls could be way off base. Maybe they are skewed heavily towards democrats. Maybe people are simply giving pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear. I suppose all of that is possible.
But even if so, that would seem to be a constant in the overall polling environment, meaning that even if the numbers are skewed towards Obama, the overall direction of the polls should still be reliable.
And that direction, for the past two weeks, has been downward for Romney/Ryan. The daily Rasmussen poll which had Romney up five points two weeks ago, now has him down three points. That’s an eight point swing in Obama’s favor during a period that is generally considered by conservatives to be the worst two weeks of Obama’s Presidency. And yet Obama’s fortunes have risen.
It’s almost as if conservatives are seeing a completely different race than the nation at large. I wonder how that could be possible?
Neither candidate will ever get below 45% of the vote, and neither candidate will likely _poll_ above 50%. The problem for Republicans is they have a vast number of people who oppose a caricature of what they think Republicans are: a bunch of racist old white haters who seek to thump their Bibles on the heads of the populace. OTOH, Dems are seen by this group as a diverse group of caring, educated, loving problem-solvers who want to save the planet from evil corporate whatever.
We were just in Mendocino and a place called Guerneville in northwestern California, which may, if it’s possible, be even bluer than the SF Bay Area where we live (and where R’s will get about 30-40% of the vote in most elections). These are the sort of tourist places where everyone either is an artist (or calls themselves one, even if their day job is working at a gift shop), owns a B&B, or runs a gift shop or other tourist biz. The places were overflowing with Obamaness, as well as gay “rainbow flags”.
Many of the people in these towns are quite intelligent, but they’ve bought into “political tribalism” to the point where they can’t imagine voting for any Republican. To do so would be to number themselves among “the haters” as they typically call “the other side”.
At the roots of the “tribal definition” is what they see as civil rights questions. Question gay marriage, abortion, or be religious in any way (unless it’s a non-Western religion) means you’re a “hater”. In an economic sense – many of these people own small businesses – they’re far more Republican than they think, but they can’t see beyond their own political tribalism to imagine that the same people they celebrate as civil rights fighters are crushing their ability to do well in their businesses.
Anyway, these places are tough to have interesting conversations. They feel almost Japanese in the sense of needing to avoid certain topics and having to culturally watch one’s step. And most of “Blue America” is at least somewhat like this.
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