So, it’s been a week now since John Roberts betrayed conservatives and the Constitution. Let’s see how those polls are looking.
The main poll I follow is the one that has been the most accurate in predicting election results for the last decade. That’s the “Rasmussen Reports” poll. In this case more specifically it’s the “Daily Presidential Tracking poll.” That page lists two polls, Presidential approval/disapproval and Obama vs. Romney “likely voter”. The Rasmussen poll is generally more accurate in predicting elections because Rasmussen uses a proprietary algorithm to predict voter turnout based on a bunch of variables including voter enthusiasm, party affiliation, geography, etc. So it won’t match “public opinion” polls which tend to show Obama still having a significant lead over Romney.
Right now Mitt Romney is still leading Obama in the Rasmussen poll 46% to 44%.
That sounds good until you realize that last Wednesday Romney was leading 48% to 43%.
So… I had predicted that the Roberts Betrayal would end up boosting Obama by ‘double digits’. So far it’s boosted him three points, going from down 5 to down 2. And I still think the decision is still registering with people.
Still, it’s fair to say that I may have overestimated the positive impact on Obama’s numbers.
But clearly it has had NO negative impact on Obama at all. So those who believed the ruling would give Romney a boost don’t yet have any evidence to support that, and in fact Romney’s numbers have dropped even more than Obama’s have risen.
Perhaps the ruling isn’t having the major impact either side expected. Still, as of this moment it certainly appears to have been more negative for Romney than positive.